éric bélanger mcgill

In this article, we present a vote function model to forecast Canadian federal elections. We focus on three main empirical indicators in the essay....With the notable exception of Mughan (1987), forecasting attempts in the United Kingdom have been solely concerned with developing popularity functions. One country that has not received much attention to date is Canada. It is however very difficult to identify non-compliance through survey research because claiming to follow the rules is socially desirable. Pero el éxito de este paradigma, el cual adopta la visión clásica [valence] de la economía que posee un amplio consenso, ha ecl...We look at economic voting during times of financial crisis using individual-level survey data from the 2008 and 2011 Canadian Election Studies. These include measures of socio-demographic status that capture individuals' resources and capacity to participate (Verba et al., 1995; Anduiza et al., 2010) such as gender, age, education, income and class (for full details see Appendix,Table 2). contexte d'écoute joue-t-il sur l'identification du Trabajos que incorporen diferent...Election forecasting work, in Britain and elsewhere, has been confined mainly to traditional approaches – statistical modeling or poll-watching. Éric Bélanger and Bonnie M. Meguid. (2012) (see also Nadeau et al., 2012;... Vraisemblablement, un seul message ne saurait suffire vu la diversité des raisons qui empêchent les individus de participer au scrutin.

The perceptions held by Canadians about the US health care system, or those held by Americans about Canada, end up having significant impact on health...The results of the 2011 Canadian federal election were surprising. Office of Sponsored Research James Administration, Room 208 845 Sherbrooke Street West Montreal, Quebec H3A 0G4 Tel.

Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Richard Nadeau and Éric Bélanger. Indeed, on that subject, France has been investigated more than any other democracy, except the United States (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). Investigations generally follow one of two designs: aggregate...Scholarly accounts of the dramatic breakthrough of the List Pim Fortuyn (LPF) in the 2002 Much of the work in the area has focused on whether institutions affect the ‘clarity of political responsibility’ and the ability of voters to p...French popularity functions are under-studied, at least when as compared to vote functions. This paper formulates a vote function model to forecast general elections in the UK. What accounts for the dramatic and largely unexpected shift in electoral fortunes? This article specifies and tests the mediating role of one such factor, namely regionalism, on economic voting in Canada. This leads us to ask whether there also exists a bifurcation of political attitudes, with those in the lower...RESUMEN En la actualidad existe un amplio conocimiento acerca del voto económico; conocimiento que, en general, proviene de democracias desarrolladas (Norteamérica y Europa Occidental). We analyze 60 yea...Recently, we proposed an original statistical model for forecasting general elections in the United Kingdom, based on the observation of a few key indicators of the political and economic system.

Patrimony, as measured by the number of assets that an individual owns, has been found to matter to vote choice in recent French presidential elections. Most importantly, what accounts for the sudden leap in popularity of the New Democratic Party, particularly in Quebec? Le niveau de sophistication politique et la The ef...This article revisits our forecast of the 2012 French presidential election. 2013. Éric Bélanger, McGill University, Political Science Department, Faculty Member. This distinction between “graceful” and “sore” losers is essential for the stability of democratic regimes. Pero el éxito de este paradigma, el cual adopta la visión clásica [valence] de la economía que posee un amplio consenso, ha ec...Some institutional arrangements may be undesirable for democracy by obscuring which political actors are to be held responsible for failed or successful policies and bad or good macroeconomic performances. In addition to promoting their past achievements, candidates also seek to underline the weaknesses of their adversaries. Following common practice, we lag the GDP growth rate three months. Over several generations, those in higher echelons have enjoyed considerable growth, while those in lower tiers have seen no growth, or worse, declines.